XXXI. The Frequent Flyer Illusion

Something I’ve considered more than once over the past twelve months, is whether or not a credit card that awards me frequent flyer points is for me.

Everyone I know that uses one, raves about how great the cheap flights are, but when I ask them how it works, and what it actually costs them (aka the real value) the answers don’t generally leave me with much confidence that they understand the product at all.

As always a quick disclaimer: the information provided in this blog is for general informational purposes, based on my own research. It’s not intended as financial advice. I am not a licensed financial professional. Before making any financial decisions, please consult a qualified financial advisor, accountant, or another professional who can provide advice tailored to your unique situation.

For the TL;DR section where I cut straight to the blunt truth — skip to the end.

The illusion of explanatory depth

The illusion of explanatory depth is a cognitive bias where people overestimate their understanding of a complex phenomenon, believing they know more than they do until they are forced to explain it in detail.

A consumer’s conceived understanding of the value of a frequent flyer program is a perfect example of the illusion of explanatory depth.

Here’s why:

The complexity is hidden: Frequent flyer programs are deliberately designed to be complex. The value of a point or a mile isn’t fixed; it changes based on a myriad of factors: the airline, the route, the time of year, whether you’re redeeming for a flight or a toaster, and your status level. Consumers can easily understand the high-level concept—”I fly, I get points, I get free flights“—but they rarely grasp the underlying economics.

The overconfidence: A consumer will feel confident that they understand the program’s value. They’ll say, “I’m saving up my miles for a business-class trip to Paris.” They know the goal, and they believe the simple point-to-flight conversion they have in their head is accurate.

The failure to explain: If you were to ask that same consumer to explain how the airline values that point, how it sells miles to credit card partners at a massive markup, or why “taxes and fees” can sometimes make a “free” flight cost hundreds of dollars, they would likely struggle. They would discover, in that moment, that their knowledge is much shallower than they thought.

This is a classic case where a person’s oversimplified mental model of a complex system leads to an overestimation of their own understanding.

Here’s how the value REALLY works

  • There are two very different “reward” types:
    • Classic flight rewards = fixed points by distance zone; best value, limited seats.
    • Classic plus flight rewards = far more availability, but points price floats with the cash fare (often poor value compared to Classic).
  • Examples of 2025 changes you must price in:
    • SYD–MEL economy: 9,200 pts (was 8,000).
    • SYD–LON business: 166,300 pts (was 144,600).
    • Meaning: year on year — your credit-card-earned points buy less than they did last year.
  • You still pay cash on reward seats:
    • Classic rewards require points plus taxes/fees and Qantas carrier charges—these can be substantial on long-haul premium cabins. Always add these into your “is this cheap?” math.

The major Qantas-earning cards (as of Sept 2025)

CardAnnual FeeEarn Rate (Domestic)Caps / Drop-offNotable Perks
Qantas Amex Ultimate$4501.25 pts/$1 (everyday), 2.25 pts/$1 QantasNo cap$450 Qantas Travel Credit, 2 lounge invites, often 100k+ signup bonus
Qantas Premier Platinum$349 (typical promo)1.5 pts/$1 (up to $10k/m), 0.75 thereafterMonthly cap2 lounge invites, Status Credit promotions
Westpac Altitude Qantas Black$295 + $75 program fee1.2 pts/$1 overseas, 0.8 pts/$1 domestic (drops to 0.25 after $10k/m)Yes2 lounge invites, concierge
NAB Qantas Rewards Signature$2951 pt/$1 (up to $5k/m, then 0.5 pt/$1)YesOccasional bonus Status Credits
ANZ Frequent Flyer Black$425 totalUp to 1 pt/$1 (category-based)Yes2 lounge invites, insurance perks

When it actually makes sense to have a F/F credit card

There are situations where holding a Qantas-linked card is genuinely smart:

  • You’re planning a big trip within 6–12 months: Large signup bonuses (often 80k–120k points) can cover a return economy trip or get you close to a business class seat upgrade.
  • You travel for work and can claim reimbursed expenses: If your employer reimburses your card spend, you’re effectively earning points at no personal cost (just pay off in full each month).
  • You regularly fly domestically and want lounge access: Cards that include Qantas Club passes or Status Credit promos can fast-track status or make frequent travel more comfortable.
  • You’re disciplined and never carry a balance: The value of points is wiped out the moment you start paying interest. If you’re a “pay in full every month” person, these cards can make sense. Be so real with yourself when asking “how disciplined am I really?
  • You have large, predictable expenses: Examples: insurance premiums, ATO tax payments (if the card earns on them), big home renos, wedding expenses. Funnel them through the card to hit bonus thresholds faster.

Are they cost-effective? Run this quick test

  1. Value your points realistically: ~0.7–1.0¢ for economy, 1.5–3.0¢ for premium cabins.
  2. Breakeven test: if your annual fee is $295, you need at least 29,500 points worth of value per year.
  3. Don’t hoard forever: points devalue over time—earn to burn.
  4. Minimise co-pays: compare cash fare vs points + carrier charges before redeeming.

The hidden side

This point right here is why Scott Pape (aka The “Barefoot Investor”) does not endorse having credit cards under any circumstances.

It’s worth saying out loud: credit card rewards are designed to make you spend more. Psychologically, we justify purchases with “I’m earning points!” even when the purchase wasn’t necessary. If you’re not careful, you’ll end up:

  • Spending more than you would have with a debit card.
  • Paying interest if you miss a payment — instantly wiping out any points value.
  • Carrying multiple cards and fees just to “not waste points,” when a simple low-fee card would be cheaper overall.

A Qantas Frequent Flyer card can absolutely be a tool — but only if you control it, not the other way around.

TL;DR (the blunt truth)

Yes, Qantas points can buy great value—mainly for premium cabins and upgrades—especially if you leverage big sign-up bonuses and redeem Classic Flight Rewards (not “Classic Plus” or “Points + Pay”).

But: from 5 August 2025 (yes, that’s over a month ago!), Qantas increased the points needed for many Classic Reward seats.

For example:

  • SYD–MEL economy 9,200 pts up from 8,000;
  • SYD–LHR business 166,300 up from 144,600.

That’s a devaluation, so you’ll need more points for the same trip.

Fees still bite: you still pay taxes, fees & carrier charges on reward seats, and Qantas also charges card payment fees on fares unless you use exempt methods (e.g., BPAY 7+ days in advance, PayID/PayPal in some cases).

Net-net: Cards are “worth it” if you:

(1) snag a large signup bonus,

(2) redeem Classic Rewards or upgrades on routes with good availability, and

(3) your annual fee is more than offset by realistic cents-per-point value after fees.

The final verdict

If you’re strategic, Qantas cards can unlock some genuinely great value — especially for business class seats and upgrades. But they’re not magic money machines. Points are a currency that keeps getting devalued, fees eat into your savings, and the whole system is designed to keep you engaged and spending.

Treat these cards like any other financial tool:

  • Do the math.
  • Know your breakeven.
  • Pay in full, every month.
  • And if you notice you’re buying extra “just for the points,” step back — cheap flights aren’t cheap if they come at the cost of your financial discipline.

Am I going to get one? Not any time soon, and certainly not just for the sake of carrying another piece of plastic in my wallet that only adds more weight, in much more than a physical sense.

TIM

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